Workshops

This workshop explores biases and other “thinking issues” that are particularly pertinent to decision-making and shows how a cognitive science perspective can offer practical suggestions for avoiding them. Although the topic is a serious one, elements of the workshop will illustrate some “quirks” of human reasoning and should be approached with a sense of amusement, openness and participation.

Uncertainty and complexity lie at the heart of many decisions, and DA offers a range of tools and methods for dealing with them. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the requirement that their inputs, and interpretation of results, are bias-free. Years of behavioral research show that the brain is just not wired for good reasoning about uncertainty and complexity - we are subject to a variety of value-destroying biases and judgmental limitations. With respect to uncertainty, it is bias, not the magnitude of uncertainty, that is the real problem. Unfortunately, being a subject matter expert does not offer any protection or mitigation, and in some cases makes things worse. Topics to be covered will be:
- Decision-making, judgement and brain systems
- Limitations of intuition under complexity and uncertainty
- Demonstration, explanation and impacts of the most common and damaging biases
- Bias mitigation strategies
- Learning from visual illusions as a metaphor

Who should attend this workshop? Anyone involved in making decisions, or providing input to them, who is not familiar with the subject matter, or needs a refresher.

About Steve Begg

Steve Begg is an Emeritus Professor at the University of Adelaide. His focus is on tools and processes for decision-making under uncertainty; bias identification, impact quantification and mitigation; and project/asset and portfolio evaluations. He has twice been a Distinguished Lecturer for the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) on uncertainty & decision-making topics. In 2014 he was elected to the Board of the Society of Decision Professionals (SDP). In 2016 he received the SPE’s global award for his work on biases in decision-making. He is co-author, with Reidar Bratvold, of the book “Making Good Decisions”, has given many industry short courses and workshops, and is a frequent keynote speaker at conferences.

About Reidar B. Bratvold

Reidar B. Bratvold is a partner at ThinQ Decisions and a professor of Decision and Data Analytics at the University of Stavanger. His research interests include decision and data analytics, data assimilation, portfolio analysis, real-option valuation, and behavioral challenges in decision-making. He is the co-author of the SPE book Making Good Decisions. Reidar has thrice served as an SPE Distinguished Lecturer and was the 2017 recipient of the international SPE Management & Information Award. He was the executive editor for the SPE Economics & Management journal and is a Fellow in the Society of Decision Professionals, the Norwegian Academy of Technological Sciences and the Stavanger Academy of Sciences.

Reidar holds a PhD in petroleum engineering and an MSc in mathematics, both from Stanford University and has business and management science education from INSEAD and Stanford University.

In complex situations, it makes sense to gain as rich an understanding of the situation as possible, given limitations on time and resources. Such insights can be gleaned by thinking through the problem in a structured manner, fully considering uncertainties and competing objectives, and thinking creatively about alternatives.

Topics include:
- When to use your instincts, and when to use a more structured approach
- Deriving valid probability estimates
- Common pitfalls; human psychological weaknesses
- Considering multiple perspectives
- Tradeoffs between competing objectives

The target audience for this workshop is young professionals and experienced managers who are new to decision science.

About Patrick Leach

Patrick Leach is a Professor of Practice at the Colorado School of Mines and an independent strategy consultant. He is the author of Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number? - An executive's guide to using probabilistic thinking to manage risk and to make better decisions, now in its Second Edition, and is a Past President of the Society of Decision Professionals. He has written numerous pieces about the need to move toward sustainable business practices and how to use the principles of decision science and behavioral economics to develop strategies to do so.

Decision analysis offers a theoretical foundation and practical techniques for working with subject matter experts (SMEs) to develop and refine probability assessments. Recent advances in the tools and practices of data science have lowered the barriers associated with creating and training machine learning (ML) models. Even though most practicing decision analysts have more than adequate statistical chops, it's rare for a decision consultant to actually take an active role in data analysis even when doing so might lead to better probability assessments. This workshop will explore, through group exercises, the interface between data science and traditional (some might say subjective) DA probability assessment, with the explicit goal of breaking down cultural barriers that can be impediments to decision quality.

About Chris Dalton

Chris Dalton is CEO/co-owner of Syncopation Software, publisher of the DPL and DPMX business analytics software products. Mr. Dalton has over 20 years of experience consulting in decision analysis, risk analysis and real option valuation. He has advised a variety of clients in the pharmaceutical, energy, high tech, and logistics industries in proven methods to improve performance and reduce risk. His focus is on engagements creating decision processes and systems which leverage management science, data science and technology to improve decision quality on an ongoing basis. He has trained hundreds of professionals in decision analysis and related methods and tools.

Every decision is about trade-offs. How much am I willing to invest? How much am I willing to risk? How much of my short-term cash-flow am I willing to sacrifice? You can’t have it all. You cannot maximize profit while minimizing uncertainty, avoiding negative impacts, and reducing investments and cost. But how do you approach these difficult trade-offs? How do you make your vision a reality? In this workshop, you will learn how to approach difficult trade-offs and how you can provide guidance to your peers and decision makers by acknowledging the sacrifices of your decision.

About Deepak Veeraraghavan

Deepak Veeraraghavan is a partner at Strategic Decisions Group. He leads the firm’s global life science practice and the strategy consulting practice in Europe. He is experienced in strategic decision-making, corporate strategy development and implementation, and operational excellence. His clients include companies in such diverse areas as pharmaceuticals, energy, chemicals, sports marketing, engineering, and manufacturing. Deepak Veeraraghavan received his postgraduate diploma in management from the Indian Institute of Management at Calcutta and a bachelor of engineering degree in mechanical engineering from the College of Engineering Guindy, Chennai, India.

About Florian Methling

Florian Methling is an engagement manager at Strategic Decisions Group and a research associate at RWTH Aachen University. He is co-author of the book “Reflektiert Entscheiden”. His long-term research goal is to advance the practical application of decision analysis methods and to develop decision support tools such as www.entscheidungsnavi.com . He holds a PhD in economics and a MS and BS in mechanical engineering and business administration.